負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)是與電網(wǎng)調(diào)度運(yùn)行、電力系統(tǒng)發(fā)展規(guī)劃密切相關(guān)的一項(xiàng)重要的基礎(chǔ)工作。本文所研究的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)采用基于VB.NET 的三層應(yīng)用結(jié)構(gòu)，構(gòu)建省地一體化預(yù)測(cè)平臺(tái)，有機(jī)結(jié)合了負(fù)荷特性分析、負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)和考核管理三大功能，集成了包括超短期、短期、擴(kuò)展短期及中長(zhǎng)期在內(nèi)的各類預(yù)測(cè)功能，充分考慮了氣象因素和地區(qū)具體情況，體現(xiàn)了自組織、自學(xué)習(xí)、自適應(yīng)的智能性。目前該系統(tǒng)已在湖南電網(wǎng)投入使用，實(shí)踐表明，該系統(tǒng)能有效地緩解負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)工作壓力，提高預(yù)測(cè)精度，具有良好的推廣應(yīng)用前景。
關(guān)鍵詞：負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)；預(yù)測(cè)策略；分布式應(yīng)用；.NET 框架
Abstract: load forecasting is an important foundation work of the control of power grid and power system planning. The load forecasting system researched in this paper adapted 3 layer construction which based on VB, .NET, and it established an forecasting platform which integrates province with town. It has 3 major functions: analysis of the feature of load, load forecasting and examination management, and this load forecasting system also has the functions of various kinds of load forecasting including: ultra short-term, short-term, extended
short-term, medium-term and long-term load forecasting. It took the meteorological factor and specific circumstance of the region into consideration, which embodies the intelligence of self-organization, self-learning and self-adapting. Now this system has been put into service in Hunan power grid, the practical application indicates that: this system can reduce the pressure of load forecasting and promote the precision of the forecasting, and it has a wonderful vista of popularization and application.
Key words: load forecasting; forecasting strategy; distributed application; .NET framework