據(jù)卡內(nèi)基集團（挪威奧斯陸）的分析師Bruce Diesen稱，4月的三個月平均全球芯片銷售額可能與前三個月平均銷售額持平，預計可達253億美元。世界半導體貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計組織WSTS（World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization）提供的報告中，一到三月平均銷售額約為252.6億美元。

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不過Diesen表示，四月份實際的全球銷售額與去年同期數(shù)字相比，僅增長了3%，所以今年市場面臨的壓力還是比較大的。

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“個人電腦芯片銷售四月份看強，但后續(xù)手機芯片的出貨量應(yīng)該會提高。” Diesen在一份報告中說。

日本最近公布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)字表明，3月11日的地震對半導體和化學品產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響，要小于預期。從庫存情況看，Diesen覺得地震對個人電腦或手機生產(chǎn)的影響不會持續(xù)到6月。

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Diesen預測2011年世界半導體銷售額總體將上升5%（按美元計算）。其他機構(gòu)預測的為：臺積電預計增長2%，日本野村證券（Nomura）預計增長4.4%。與這些數(shù)字相比，其他調(diào)研機構(gòu)對2011年的半導體市場顯得更加悲觀，如Future Horizons。

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另一位分析師Mike Cowan預測，4月的三個月平均全球芯片銷售額將在246.9億美元左右。 WSTS和SIA的官方統(tǒng)計數(shù)字預計在6月1日發(fā)布。

Analyst sees flat April for global chip sales

Peter Clarke

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BRUSSELS, Belgium – The three-month average of global chip sales for April are likely to be $25.3 billion April, similar to the $25.26 billion reported in March by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).

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However, the actual global sales for April will only be up 3 percent year-on-year, according to Diesen, as the market faces tough comparisons with last year.

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"PC chip sales look stronger in April, but handset chip shipments should also improve," said Diesen in a note.

Japanese statistics released today show a smaller than expected effect from the earthquake of March 11 on semiconductors and chemicals in April. With a pipeline of inventory, Diesen does not expect the earthquake to impact PC or handset production until June.

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Diesen is predicting world semiconductor sales in 2011 to rise 5 percent in U.S. dollar terms, putting Diesen at the top of the bear camp with TSMC (2 percent) and Nomura (4.4 percent) and away from more bearish forecasters such as Future Horizons.

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Mike Cowan is predicting that the April three-month average of global chip sales will be reported at $24.69 billion. WSTS and SIA are expected to report the figure on about June 1.